[RC5] Time to completion

James Byers jwb19 at cornell.edu
Wed Nov 26 02:48:51 EST 1997

	While your math seems correct, there are other factors which affect the
time to completion of the RC5-64 challenge.
	First and foremost, we will hopefully not have to exhaust 100% of the
keyspace before finding the correct key.  As exemplified by the results of
the DES challenge and RC5-56, we could just as easily find the correct key
in 5 minutes as we could in 50 years.
	Also, we will certainly see large keyrate increases because of new
technology.  The cutting edge of PC chip technology moves fast; in the
coming  years, we will be looking at tremendous speed increases in CPU
design.  (What do you think the keyrate will be on a dual GHz processor
machine running Linux 4.0.12?)

At 12:31 AM 11/26/97 -0600, you wrote:
>If I've done my math correctly it looks like at the current rate of 9000
>MKeys/sec it will take over 64 years to exhaust the keyspace.  In order
>to complete the task within one year we would need to increase our rate
>to almost 595,000 MKeys/sec (i.e. 64 times our current rate).  Even a
>3-year completion target would require an average rate of 195,000
>MKeys/sec.  Does it seem likely that we will be able to increase our
>current rate by such large factors?

James Byers                                   
jwb19 at cornell.edu
Go Big Red - RC5-64!
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