[RC5] Time to completion

Chris Arguin Chris.Arguin at unh.edu
Wed Nov 26 10:51:47 EST 1997


On Tue, 25 Nov 1997, Dave Avery wrote:

> Cedric Tefft wrote:
> > 
> > If I've done my math correctly it looks like at the current rate of 9000
> > MKeys/sec it will take over 64 years to exhaust the keyspace.  In order
> > to complete the task within one year we would need to increase our rate
> > to almost 595,000 MKeys/sec (i.e. 64 times our current rate).  Even a
> > 3-year completion target would require an average rate of 195,000
> > MKeys/sec.  Does it seem likely that we will be able to increase our
> > current rate by such large factors?
> 
> thats about right , but a week ago it was over 100 years to completion.

Why do I feel the sudden urge to analyze how quickly the time to solve the
problem is decresing... "In the first week it was going to take a
millennium, then a week later about 100 years, and after that 64
years...", "Wow! Long weeks!"

Lets see, computer speeds double every oh, let's be real conservative and
call it 5 years. So in 5 years we will only have 27 years left.. Of course,
the internet is growing, so we will get more participants..., also when
people upgrade their machines, many (greater than average anyway) will
keep their old machines chugging away. I'd guess that a maximum of 15
years is fairly reasonable. Undoubtably, within 6 months we will know that
to be an overestimate :)

On a side note, I've always imagined a class of problems that could be
described like this: If you started to work on them now, by the time they
were finished another machine would have been invented that could solve
them before the older machine is done (ie, the sooner the better doesn't
always work). I don't know what to call them, but it's nice to see that
things like distributed.net get around the problem.

--
Chris Arguin                 | "I realize, of course, that it's no shame to 
Chris.Aruguin at .unh.edu       |  be poor... But it's no great honor either!"
                             +--------------+	- Fiddler on the Roof
http://leonardo.sr.unh.edu/arguin/home.html |


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