[RC5] Time to completion

Fred Donck f.c.w.donck at siep.shell.com
Wed Nov 26 17:11:31 EST 1997


Chris Arguin wrote:
> 
> On Tue, 25 Nov 1997, Dave Avery wrote:
> 
> 
> Why do I feel the sudden urge to analyze how quickly the time to solve the
> problem is decresing... "In the first week it was going to take a
> millennium, then a week later about 100 years, and after that 64
> years...", "Wow! Long weeks!"
> 
> Lets see, computer speeds double every oh, let's be real conservative and
> call it 5 years. So in 5 years we will only have 27 years left.. Of course,
> the internet is growing, so we will get more participants..., also when
> people upgrade their machines, many (greater than average anyway) will
> keep their old machines chugging away. I'd guess that a maximum of 15
> years is fairly reasonable. Undoubtably, within 6 months we will know that
> to be an overestimate :)

This automatically implies that the software required to take advantage of
this new appearing hardware should not lag too much behind. Only if you want
to have maximum benefit of this new hardware of course.

> 
> On a side note, I've always imagined a class of problems that could be
> described like this: If you started to work on them now, by the time they
> were finished another machine would have been invented that could solve
> them before the older machine is done (ie, the sooner the better doesn't
> always work). I don't know what to call them, but it's nice to see that
> things like distributed.net get around the problem.
> 
> --
> Chris Arguin                 | "I realize, of course, that it's no shame to
> Chris.Aruguin at .unh.edu       |  be poor... But it's no great honor either!"
>                              +--------------+   - Fiddler on the Roof
> http://leonardo.sr.unh.edu/arguin/home.html |
> 
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| Unix System Engineer         | E-mail    : fred at RealIT.com (private) |
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