[rc5] wekly( or so) stats comparison - Bovine - Cyberian - Infinite Monkeys

Dave Avery cwax at pacbell.net
Sun Oct 12 15:53:33 EDT 1997


James Mastros wrote:
> 
> On Wed, 8 Oct 1997, Dave Avery wrote:
> > Expected time to completion:   45 days
> >   (There is a 50% chance some group will find the winning key sooner,
> >     and a 50% chance it will be found later.)
> >
> > Expected time to 50% of keyspace:   10 days
> >   (There is a 50% chance some group will find the winning key sooner,
> >     and a 50% chance it will be found later.)
> 
> Huha?  What is the difference?  Since the probability for each key is
> 1/2^56, then (.5*2^56)*1/2^56=.5.  So when half of the keyspace is
> completed, there is a 50% chance that The Key will have been hit.

the first number is time to 50% of the remaining keys, and 
the second number is the time ot 50% of the total keys.

the 50% of total keys value will be reached in the next 7-10 
days so we will have allready have passed the probable solution
point.

dave
stats meister
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