[rc5] 10/19/97 weekly stats comparison

Dave Avery cwax at pacbell.net
Sun Oct 19 20:57:00 EDT 1997


Raw data (as listed on groups' websites on October 20 1997,00:00 GMT)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

stats comparison archive at: http://home.pacbell.net/cwax 

Program by: andrew meggs (insect at antennahead.com) 

Bovine <http://rc5.distributed.net/>
   Keys checked: 3.3891e+16
   Speed: 4.2159e+14 keys/day
   Speed: 4879.56 Mkeys/sec
   Percent complete 47.0332%

Cyberian <http://rc5.cyberian.org/>
   Keys checked: 3.6117e+15
   Speed: 8.9245e+13 keys/day
   Speed: 1032.93 Mkeys/sec
   Percent complete 5.0122%

Infinite Monkeys <http://www.rc5.cs.wisc.edu/>
   Keys checked: 1.2106e+15
   Speed: 4.3369e+13 keys/day
   Speed: 501.96 Mkeys/sec
   Percent complete 1.6801%


Assumptions
-----------

A section of 6% (4.32e+15 keys) of the total keyspace was initially
checked by bovine but is also known by the other groups, who are not
including those keys in their search space. All other work has been
done in a completely uncoordinated fashion, and each group's remaining
work will overlap the others' in a probabilistic manner. 

There are no other groups working on the challenge.

All work listed by the groups has been done correctly -- there are no
programming errors, spam clients, or broken servers.


Duplication of work, and effective real keyrates
------------------------------------------------

Only keys that haven't already been tried by another group contribute
to a group's progress. Testing keys that have already been proven
incorrect by another group is wasted effort.

Raw number of keys checked:    3.8713e+16
Number of unique keys checked: 3.6572e+16 (50.75% of total keyspace)

Keys checked by two groups:    2.0851e+15 keys
Keys checked by three groups:  2.8178e+13 keys
Total duplicated work:         2.1414e+15 keys (5.53% of all work done)

Amount of duplicate work being done by each group:
  (subtract this amount from your client's speed to see how
   many new, potentially correct keys it's checking)

  Bovine:    7.02%
  Cyberian: 44.66%
  Monkeys:  46.66%

Number of never-before-checked keys per day:

  Bovine:   3.920e+14 keys/day (0.544% of the keyspace)
  Cyberian: 4.939e+13 keys/day (0.069% of the keyspace)
  Monkeys:  2.313e+13 keys/day (0.032% of the keyspace)
  Total:    4.645e+14 keys/day (0.645% of the keyspace)


Future predictions and probability
----------------------------------

All information in this section concerns the future, and necessarily
contains an additional assumption that the key rates for each group will
hold at their present rates. This, of course, won't be true, but it does
allow one to compute rough figures.

Maximum time to completion:    91 days
  (Key will have been found by the time any group has searched all of
   the keyspace. Bovine would be the first group to reach 100%.)

Expected time to completion:   41 days
  (There is a 50% chance some group will find the winning key sooner,
    and a 50% chance it will be found later.)

Expected time to 50% of keyspace:   0 days
  (There is a 50% chance some group will find the winning key sooner,
    and a 50% chance it will be found later.)

Odds of each group winning at the present key rates:

   Bovine:   90.989% (about 10 to 1 in favor)
   Cyberian:  6.176% (about 76 to 5 against)
   Monkeys:   2.827% (about 69 to 2 against)

Odds if Bovine could immediately double their key rate while the
other groups' rates stayed constant:

   Bovine:   95.427% (about 20 to 1 in favor)
   Cyberian:  3.119% (about 497 to 16 against)
   Monkeys:   1.444% (about 273 to 4 against)
   Expected completion:   22 days

Odds if Cyberian could immediately double their key rate while the
other groups' rates stayed constant:

   Bovine:   84.938% (about 5 to 1 in favor)
   Cyberian: 12.352% (about 71 to 10 against)
   Monkeys:   2.703% (about 36 to 1 against)
   Expected completion:   38 days

Odds if Infinite Monkeys could immediately double their key rate while
the other groups' rates stayed constant:

   Bovine:   88.286% (about 7 to 1 in favor)
   Cyberian:  6.052% (about 16 to 1 against)
   Monkeys:   5.654% (about 17 to 1 against)
   Expected completion:   40 days

Projected odds one week from now if the current rates hold and no group
has found the key in that time:

   Bovine:   91.601% (about 10 to 1 in favor)
   Cyberian:  5.763% (about 33 to 2 against)
   Monkeys:   2.628% (about 741 to 20 against)
   Expected completion:   38 days
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