[rc5] We may only need 5 years...
Seth Dillingham
seth at snet.net
Thu Oct 23 17:10:28 EDT 1997
Eric Gindrup (gindrup at okway.okstate.edu), on 10/23/1997 4:51 PM, wrote
the following:
> By eyeball at http://home.pacbell.net/cwax/bovineg.html, the Bovine
> effort seems to double its number of completed keys count every 2.5
> weeks. Current keyrate is 5Gkps.
> Let's say:
> 1. We start RC5-64 right now.
> 2. The doubling rate is constant for the duration I'm about to
> compute.
> 3. We have to exhaust all of the RC5-64 keyspace.
>
> Let f(w) be the number of completed keys with w in weeks. (The
> following keeps about one significant digit.)
> f'(0) = 5Gkps. f(w+2.5) = 2*f(w). These together mean f(w) =
> 1.4*2^(w/2.5). To make this =2^64, w=160.
>
> So, in 3 years, we could exhaust the keyspace. We'd "probably" find
> the key in about 18 months. This is so terrible?
> -- Eric Gindrup ! gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
And what exactly is the likelihood we could keep that doubling rate up
for that long?
Hah! Yeah right!
Seth Dillingham
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