[rc5] We may only need 5 years...

Eric Gindrup gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
Thu Oct 23 17:11:47 EDT 1997


     Let's see 500 thousand IPs returned blocks to Bovine and only ~25 
     thousand were active at the end.  There's four doublings.  Machine 
     rates double every 18 months.  Easier clients will increase the viable 
     user population.  Yes, I think we can double the effort at that rate 
     for considerably longer.  Of course, this has all the hallmarks of 
     logistic growth.  Eventually, the user population will saturate, but 
     the stat I started off with indicates that we are far from there.
            -- Eric Gindrup ! gindruP at okway.okstate.edu


______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: Re: [rc5] We may only need 5 years...  
Author:  <rc5 at llamas.net > at SMTP
Date:    10/23/97 4:10 PM


Eric Gindrup (gindrup at okway.okstate.edu), on 10/23/1997 4:51 PM, wrote 
the following:
     
>     By eyeball at http://home.pacbell.net/cwax/bovineg.html, the Bovine 
>     effort seems to double its number of completed keys count every 2.5 
>     weeks.  Current keyrate is 5Gkps.
>     Let's say:
>     1.  We start RC5-64 right now.
>     2.  The doubling rate is constant for the duration I'm about to 
>     compute.
>     3.  We have to exhaust all of the RC5-64 keyspace. 
>     
>     Let f(w) be the number of completed keys with w in weeks.  (The 
>     following keeps about one significant digit.)
>     f'(0) = 5Gkps.  f(w+2.5) = 2*f(w).  These together mean f(w) = 
>     1.4*2^(w/2.5).  To make this =2^64, w=160.
>     
>     So, in 3 years, we could exhaust the keyspace.  We'd "probably" find 
>     the key in about 18 months.  This is so terrible?
>             -- Eric Gindrup ! gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
     
And what exactly is the likelihood we could keep that doubling rate up 
for that long?
     
Hah! Yeah right!
     
Seth Dillingham
     
     
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