[RC5] Moore's law and completion time

Greg Ackerson ackerson_ga at nns.com
Thu Apr 2 11:08:15 EST 1998


Linearly, it would take us ~30 years to get halfway across the 
keyspace, but I think it's silly to assume our power will be 
constant; just look at yesterday's keyrate vs. our average.

Making the following assumptions, I calculate us checking 100% of the 
keyspace in only ~8.7 years:

Done: 446 Mblocks
Total: 68700 Mblocks
Current rate: 1460 Mblocks/year
Rate increases: 41.41% per year (Moore's law, JICYW, states computer 
processing power on average doubles every 2 years. This has held true 
for at least the past 10 years.)

The output from a simple iterative program:

year 1  blocks: 1906  rate: 2064.59
year 2  blocks: 3970  rate: 2919.53
year 3  blocks: 6889  rate: 4128.51
year 4  blocks: 11017  rate: 5838.12
year 5  blocks: 16855  rate: 8255.69
year 6  blocks: 25110  rate: 11674.37
year 7  blocks: 36784  rate: 16508.73
year 8  blocks: 53292  rate: 23345.00
year 9  blocks: 76637  rate: 33012.16

In fact, judging from the project's age vs. the increase of our 
current keyrate from our average keyrate, we're beating Moore's law 
handily; this apparently indicates increasing participation.


-- GAck
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