[RC5] Time to Completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Apr 3 14:01:21 EST 1998


> Doing a naieve calculation based on rc5stats:
>
>  ((1 - "keyspace exhausted") / "keyspace completed yesterday" ) / 365
> 
> yields something like 39 years.
> 
> I know: this does not take into account anticipated growth
> in participants, client speed, etc. Do we have a better 
> estimate for TTC? 

I currently do a daily estimate of time to completion based on 
extrapolation of daily blocks completed data from the 
rc5stats.distributed.net main page.

The data I use is RC5 2^28 key blocks completed on GMT days over the 
two periods 4 December 1997 to 12 January 1998 (excluding the outlier 
on 10 December 1997) and 2 March 1998 to date.

I do three regressions

1.  Assume linear growth (not likely but someone wanted it)
2.  Assume exponential growth
3.  Assume exponential growth but use only the data since DES-II 1
    (2 March 1998 to date)


For data to 2 April 1998 these three give: 

1. Growth is 9285 blocks per day.  Keyspace complete in 9.3 years.
2. Rate doubles every 276 days.  Keyspace complete in 4.1 years.
3. Rate doubles every 151 days.  Keyspace complete in 2.6 years.

I will post here weekly if there is interest (which day is preferred) 
and will see if there is a way to get this info up on the web site.

FYI plots are now at www.distributed.net/statistics/plots.html 
(I do not look after the plots)

Bruce Ford
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