[RC5] Time to Completion

Jim C. Nasby nasby at enteract.com
Fri Apr 3 00:36:02 EST 1998


FWIW, our current growth is basically linear... check the plots.

Mooo!
dB!

Bruce Ford wrote:

> > Doing a naieve calculation based on rc5stats:
> >
> >  ((1 - "keyspace exhausted") / "keyspace completed yesterday" ) / 365
> >
> > yields something like 39 years.
> >
> > I know: this does not take into account anticipated growth
> > in participants, client speed, etc. Do we have a better
> > estimate for TTC?
>
> I currently do a daily estimate of time to completion based on
> extrapolation of daily blocks completed data from the
> rc5stats.distributed.net main page.
>
> The data I use is RC5 2^28 key blocks completed on GMT days over the
> two periods 4 December 1997 to 12 January 1998 (excluding the outlier
> on 10 December 1997) and 2 March 1998 to date.
>
> I do three regressions
>
> 1.  Assume linear growth (not likely but someone wanted it)
> 2.  Assume exponential growth
> 3.  Assume exponential growth but use only the data since DES-II 1
>     (2 March 1998 to date)
>
> For data to 2 April 1998 these three give:
>
> 1. Growth is 9285 blocks per day.  Keyspace complete in 9.3 years.
> 2. Rate doubles every 276 days.  Keyspace complete in 4.1 years.
> 3. Rate doubles every 151 days.  Keyspace complete in 2.6 years.
>
> I will post here weekly if there is interest (which day is preferred)
> and will see if there is a way to get this info up on the web site.
>
> FYI plots are now at www.distributed.net/statistics/plots.html
> (I do not look after the plots)
>
> Bruce Ford
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--
Jim C. Nasby (aka Decibel!)                                  /^\
nasbjim at charlie.cns.iit.edu                                 /___\
Freelance lighting designer and database developer         /  |  \
Member: Triangle Fraternity, Sports Car Club of America   /___|___\

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