[RC5] Moore's law and completion time

Dave Marquardt marquard at zilker.net
Fri Apr 3 08:02:04 EST 1998


"Greg Ackerson" <ackerson_ga at nns.com> writes:
> Linearly, it would take us ~30 years to get halfway across the 
> keyspace, but I think it's silly to assume our power will be 
> constant; just look at yesterday's keyrate vs. our average.
> 
> Making the following assumptions, I calculate us checking 100% of the 
> keyspace in only ~8.7 years:
> 
> Done: 446 Mblocks
> Total: 68700 Mblocks
> Current rate: 1460 Mblocks/year
> Rate increases: 41.41% per year (Moore's law, JICYW, states computer 
> processing power on average doubles every 2 years. This has held true 
> for at least the past 10 years.)

I encounter many people who say processing power doubles every 18
months.  So which did Moore say?  I think 18 months seems to be close
to reality....

-Dave
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