[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Thu Apr 9 19:00:03 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported  on 
the rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 8 Apr 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 8 Apr 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 8 Apr 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 8 Apr 98.

These give:

1. Rate grows at 9777 blocks per day.
   Keyspace complete in 9.1 years.

2. Rate grows at 19974 blocks per day.
   Keyspace complete in 6.6 years.

3. Rate doubles every 266 days.
   Keyspace complete in 3.9 years.

4. Rate doubles every 145 days.
   Keyspace complete in 2.5 years.


Happy Easter.

Bruce Ford
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