[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Apr 17 15:41:16 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on
the rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 16 Apr 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 16 Apr 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 16 Apr 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 16 Apr 98.

These give:

1. Rate grows at 10775 blocks per day.
   Keyspace complete in 8.7 years.

2. Rate grows at 23342 blocks per day.
   Keyspace complete in 6.1 years.

3. Rate doubles every 247 days.
   Keyspace complete in 3.7 years.

4. Rate doubles every 128 days.
   Keyspace complete in 2.2 years.

1% complete by end of May (somewhere around May 19 to May 23)

Bruce Ford
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