[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Apr 24 14:30:20 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 23 Apr 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 23 Apr 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 23 Apr 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 23 Apr 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 16 Apr 98 and 8 Apr 98)

1. Rate grows at 11564 blocks per day. (10775, 9777)
   Keyspace complete in 8.4 years.     (8.7, 9.1)

2. Rate grows at 24448 blocks per day. (23342, 19974)
   Keyspace complete in 5.9 years.     (6.1, 6.6)

3. Rate doubles every 234 days.    (247, 266)
   Keyspace complete in 3.5 years. (3.7, 3.9)

4. Rate doubles every 124 days.    (128, 145)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.2, 2.5)


If growth continues at the last value above, by the 13 Jul 98 
distributed.net could complete the full DES keyspace in 10 days. 

This assumes a multiplier of 3.5 for the DES keyrate to RC5 
keyrate which is based on an RC5 keyrate change of ~7500 Mkeys/s when 
DES-II-1 finished.  At the end of DES-II-1 the DES keyrate was 
~~29000 Mkeys/s.

Bruce Ford
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