[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Sat Aug 8 01:45:15 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on 
the rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 6 Aug 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 6 Aug 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 6 Aug 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 6 Aug 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 30 Jul 98 and 23 Jul 98)

1. Rate grows at 23359 blocks per day. (22133, 20638)
   Keyspace complete in 5.7 years.     (5.9, 6.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 29 May 2002.

2. Rate grows at 34916 blocks per day. (33529, 31397)
   Keyspace complete in 4.7 years.     (4.9, 5.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 11 Oct 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 158 days.    (163, 168)
   Keyspace complete in 2.3 years. (2.3, 2.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 7 Jun 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 120 days.    (122, 126)
   Keyspace complete in 1.8 years. (1.8, 1.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Jan 2000.

TeraFLOPs.
Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:

1.   13.9,    24.9,    35.9
2.   17.7,    34.2,    50.7
3.   58.5,    1435,    35009
4.  119.8,    8047,    537442

Bruce Ford

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