[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Aug 14 15:20:01 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on 
the rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 13 Aug 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 13 Aug 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 13 Aug 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 13 Aug 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 6 Aug 98 and 30 Jul 98)

1. Rate grows at 24312 blocks per day. (23359, 22133)
   Keyspace complete in 5.6 years.     (5.7, 5.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 3 May 2002.

2. Rate grows at 35679 blocks per day. (34916, 33529)
   Keyspace complete in 4.7 years.     (4.7, 4.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 30 Sep 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 156 days.    (158, 163)
   Keyspace complete in 2.2 years. (2.3, 2.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 May 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 120 days.    (120, 122)
   Keyspace complete in 1.8 years. (1.8, 1.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Jan 2000.

TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 6 Aug 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   14.1,   25.6,    37.1    (13.9,    24.9,    35.9)
2.   17.8,   34.7,    51.6    (17.7,    34.2,    50.7)
3.   58.6      -        -     (58.5       -        - )
4.  114.8      -        -     (119.8      -        - )

Bruce Ford

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