[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Aug 21 18:05:09 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the 
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 20 Aug 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 20 Aug 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 20 Aug 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 20 Aug 98.

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 18 Jul 98 to 20 Aug 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 18 Jul 98 to 20 Aug 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 13 Aug 98 and 6 Aug 98)

1. Rate grows at 25397 blocks per day. (24312, 23359)
   Keyspace complete in 5.4 years.     (5.6, 5.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 5 Apr 2002.

2. Rate grows at 36740 blocks per day. (35679, 34916)
   Keyspace complete in 4.6 years.     (4.7, 4.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 14 Sep 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 153 days.    (156, 158)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.2, 2.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 17 May 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 119 days.    (120, 120)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.8, 1.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 25 Jan 2000.

5. Rate grows at 42392 blocks per day. 
   Keyspace complete in 4.3 years.
   50% chance of finding key before 26 Jun 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 153 days.
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years.
   50% chance of finding key before 21 Apr 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 13 Aug 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   14.3,   26.2,    38.2   ( 14.1,   25.6,    37.1)
2.   18.0,   35.3,    52.6   ( 17.8,   34.7,    51.6)
3.   59.1      -        -    ( 58.6      -        - )
4.  111.6      -        -    (114.8      -        - )

5.   19.8,   39.8,    59.7
6.   58.9      -        -


Regressions 5 and 6 will be based over the last 35 days in future.  They are 
over 34 days this time due to DES-II-2.  Be warned, the numbers will be 
highly variable!


Bruce Ford

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