[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Aug 28 16:11:49 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 27 Aug 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 27 Aug 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 27 Aug 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 27 Aug 98.

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 24 Jul 98 to 27 Aug 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 24 Jul 98 to 27 Aug 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 20 Aug 98 and 13 Aug 98)

1. Rate grows at 26468 blocks per day. (25397, 24312)
   Keyspace complete in 5.3 years.     (5.4, 5.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 9 Mar 2002.

2. Rate grows at 37769 blocks per day. (36740, 35679)
   Keyspace complete in 4.5 years.     (4.6, 4.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 31 Aug 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 150 days.    (153, 156)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.1, 2.2)
   50% chance of finding key before 8 May 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 119 days.    (119, 120)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 23 Jan 2000.

5. Rate grows at 48579 blocks per day. (42392)
   Keyspace complete in 4.0 years.  (4.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 5 May 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 139 days.    (153)
   Keyspace complete in 1.9 years.  (2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 17 Mar 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 20 Aug 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   14.6,   27.1,    39.6   ( 14.3,   26.2,    38.2)
2.   18.3,   36.1,    53.9   ( 18.0,   35.3,    52.6)
3.   61.4      -        -    ( 59.1      -        - )
4.  113.2      -        -    (111.6      -        - )

5.   21.8,   44.7,    67.6   ( 19.8,   39.8,    59.7)
6.   74.8      -        -    ( 58.9      -        - )


Bruce Ford


Bruce Ford                        Ph: +61 7 3864 4361
Security and Authentication Services
Computing Services
Queensland University of Technology

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