[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Dec 11 16:33:41 EST 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each UTC day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 10 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 10 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 10 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 10 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 6 Nov 98 to 10 Dec 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 6 Nov 98 to 10 Dec 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 3 Dec 98 and 26 Nov 98)

1. Rate grows at 36162 blocks per day. (35598, 35109)
   Keyspace complete in 4.3 years.     (4.3, 4.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 18 Sep 2001.

2. Rate grows at 43939 blocks per day. (43534, 43261)
   Keyspace complete in 3.9 years.     (3.9, 4.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 26 Jun 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 144 days.    (144, 144)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 19 Apr 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 131 days.    (130, 129)
   Keyspace complete in 1.6 years. (1.6, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 22 Mar 2000.

5. Rate grows at 65550 blocks per day. (46867, 36160)
   Keyspace complete in 3.3 years.     (3.8, 4.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 8 Feb 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 156 days.     (212, 266)
   Keyspace complete in 1.8 years.  (2.3, 2.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 18 May 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 3 Dec 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.    9.0,   17.3,   25.7   (  8.9,   17.2,   25.5)
2.   10.2,   20.4,   30.5   ( 10.2,   20.3,   30.5)
3.   33.0      -       -    ( 33.4      -       - )
4.   41.6      -       -    ( 42.9      -       - )

5.   13.0,   28.2,   43.4   ( 10.7,   21.7,   32.6)
6.   27.9      -       -    ( 17.4      -       - )


Regression lines for 2 and 4 (data from 2 March 1998) are plotted at
http://www.distributed.net/statistics/index.html and
http://www.distributed.net/statistics/rc5-64.html

Plots are updated at approximately 05:30 UTC each day.

Bruce Ford

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