[RC5] Time to completion

Jean-Ric jean-ric at housemartin.force9.co.uk
Sat Dec 12 00:38:36 EST 1998


Bruce Ford wrote:
> 
> 6. Rate doubles every 156 days.     (212, 266)
>    Keyspace complete in 1.8 years.  (2.3, 2.7)
>    50% chance of finding key before 18 May 2000.
  ...
> Regression lines for 2 and 4 (data from 2 March 1998) are plotted at
> http://www.distributed.net/statistics/index.html and

I don't want to underestimate the contributions being put in on this, or
on any other part of the project, but I'd urge caution in that analysis.

Could the "doubling time" be re-assessed on the basis of everything from
1st March 1998 onwards, ignoring everything prior to that date?  The
graph appears to show a consistent path from about that point onwards,
but has gross unevenness before that date, which appears to be
overestimating our growth.

    Rick

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