[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Dec 18 14:05:37 EST 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each UTC day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 17 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 17 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 17 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and
   18 Jul 98 to 17 Dec 98 (excluding 22 Sep 98).

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 13 Nov 98 to 17 Dec 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 13 Nov 98 to 17 Dec 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 3 Dec 98 and 26 Nov 98)

1. Rate grows at 36733 blocks per day. (36162, 35598)
   Keyspace complete in 4.2 years.     (4.3, 4.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 10 Sep 2001.

2. Rate grows at 44365 blocks per day. (43939, 43534)
   Keyspace complete in 3.9 years.     (3.9, 3.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 22 Jun 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 144 days.    (144, 144)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 23 Apr 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 132 days.    (131, 130)
   Keyspace complete in 1.6 years. (1.6, 1.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Mar 2000.

5. Rate grows at 75033 blocks per day. (65550, 46867)
   Keyspace complete in 3.1 years.     (3.3, 3.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 30 Dec 2000.

6. Rate doubles every 140 days.     (156, 212)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years.  (1.8, 2.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 13 Apr 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 10 Dec 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.    9.1,   17.6,   26.1   (  9.0,   17.3,   25.7)
2.   10.3,   20.5,   30.8   ( 10.2,   20.4,   30.5)
3.   32.8      -       -    ( 33.0      -       - )
4.   40.7      -       -    ( 41.6      -       - )

5.   14.2,   31.6,   49.0   ( 13.0,   28.2,   43.4)
6.   34.2      -       -    ( 27.9      -       - )



Bruce Ford

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