[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Jul 3 17:48:35 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 2 Jul 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 2 Jul 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 2 Jul 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 2 Jul 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 25 Jun 98 and 18 Jun 98)

1. Rate grows at 17959 blocks per day. (17395, 16648)
   Keyspace complete in 6.6 years.     (6.7, 6.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 3 Dec 2002.

2. Rate grows at 27357 blocks per day. (27159, 26410)
   Keyspace complete in 5.4 years.     (5.5, 5.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 6 Mar 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 181 days.    (184, 187)
   Keyspace complete in 2.6 years. (2.7, 2.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 31 Aug 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 135 days.    (134, 133)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.1, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 30 Mar 2000.


Bruce Ford
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