[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Jul 10 14:49:49 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on 
the rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 9 Jul 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 9 Jul 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 9 Jul 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 9 Jul 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 2 Jul 98 and 25 Jun 98)

1. Rate grows at 19024 blocks per day. (17959, 17395)
   Keyspace complete in 6.4 years.     (6.6, 6.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 21 Oct 2002.

2. Rate grows at 28916 blocks per day. (27357, 27159)
   Keyspace complete in 5.3 years.     (5.4, 5.5)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Jan 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 177 days.    (181, 184)
   Keyspace complete in 2.6 years. (2.6, 2.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 10 Aug 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 131 days.    (135, 134)
   Keyspace complete in 2.0 years. (2.1, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 9 Mar 2000.

As DES-II-2 will be in full swing next week I will not be posting time to 
completion projections.  Well, maybe there will be a posting as DES-II-2 
is likely to be finished by this time next week. :)

Either way, future time to completion reports for RC5-64 (RC5-32/12/8) 
will exclude the time on DES-II-2.

Bruce Ford


Bruce Ford                                      b.ford at qut.edu.au
Systems Programmer
Teaching and Learning Support Services          Ph: +61 7 3864 3383
Queensland University of Technology
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