[RC5] BOUNCE rc5@lists.distributed.net: Approval required: (fwd)
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mailman at watcher.highlander.org
Wed Jul 22 22:17:17 EDT 1998
From: gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 1998 14:24:39 -0600
To: <rc5 at llamas.net>
Subject: Regression requests...
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If someone has an appropriate tool, I'd be interested in rough
estimates of the following numbers:
Assuming that the keyrate growth curves are similar (in the
technical geometry sense -- i.e., identical except for stretching)
what would have been the DES-II-2 keyrate that corresponds to the
point on the DES-II-1 keyrate graph where the DES-II-1 key was
found?
In other words, assuming that the growth patterns in the DES
keyrate for the two efforts is identical, what would have been the
estimated peak keyrate on DES-II-2?
Alternatively, assuming that the curves are "well modelled" by the
Atan() function, what are the expected (upper) asymptotic values of
both keyrates.
It is reasonable to assume that the switchover to DES was
logistic in both cases. Although this doesn't give exactly Atan(),
it is a decent first approximation.
It might help to treat *all* keyrates prior to the start date as
zeroes (to "factor out" the heavy-handed discreteness of the sample
data).
I'm not looking for a multi-hour project. Just a parameter or
two and a rough search for a minimal error over the parameter space,
then an estimate of the upper bound on the approximants.
I'm tool-less and writing this in MS-DOS Shell (batch) is not
necessarily a fun way to go.
-- Eric Gindrup ! gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
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