[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Mon Jul 27 18:10:47 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on 
the rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 23 Jul 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 23 Jul 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 23 Jul 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 23 Jul 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 9 Jul 98 and 2 Jul 98)

1. Rate grows at 20638 blocks per day. (19024, 17959)
   Keyspace complete in 6.1 years.     (6.4, 6.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 24 Aug 2002.

2. Rate grows at 31397 blocks per day. (28916, 27357)
   Keyspace complete in 5.0 years.     (5.3, 5.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 11 Dec 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 168 days.    (177, 181)
   Keyspace complete in 2.4 years. (2.6, 2.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 14 Jul 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 126 days.    (131, 135)
   Keyspace complete in 1.9 years. (2.0, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 19 Feb 2000.


Sorry for the late posting.  New job.

Bruce Ford


Bruce Ford                        Ph: +61 7 3864 4361
Security and Authentication Services
Computing Services
Queensland University of Technology
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