[RC5] d.net Pride (Ooops)
Eric Wikman
eric at wikman.com
Mon Jul 27 16:14:27 EDT 1998
Sorry, I made an error in my calculation. I will post my formula so everyone
can be sure that it is basically correct. Here is the revised stats (also
including Bruce Fords new stats he just posted).
(Daily block increase / One days blocks * Days till 2000 + 1) * Current
TFLOPS =
1)
(20638/8682196*523+1)*4421429 = 9.9 TFlops by 2000
(20638/8682196*1254+1)*4421429 = 17.6 by 2002
(20638/8682196*1984+1)*4421429 = 25.2 by 2004
2)
(31397/8682196*523+1)*4421429 = 12.7 by 2000
(31397/8682196*1254+1)*4421429 = 24.4 by 2002
(31397/8682196*1984+1)*4421429 = 36.1 by 2004
I would like to include the stats for the exponential scenario, but am not
sure which formula to use. Bruce Ford says the doubling time for method
three is 168 days. So:
Convert doubling time of 168 days to % increase per day
2 = x ^ 168; x = 1.0041343992192
Once I have that I do not know if I should use a similar formula above like:
((x-1)*523+1)*4421429 = 13.9 or:
x^523*4421429 = 38.2
3)
13.9 = 2000; 27.3; 40.6 or:
38.2; 780; 15870
4) 2x of 126 days = 1.00551632731
12.7; 30.5; 48.3
78.5; 4380; 242991
If the first scenario is the case then I would like to include it in the email
posts, but if the seconds scenario is correct and it is predicting to have
242,991 TFlops by year 2004, then I find that a little ridiculous since IBM,
Sun, Cray, and Digital will still be trying to put together a 100 TFlop
system.
I would appreciate it if someone would check my math, and please be
polite when you let me know I am wrong :)
As always, thanks Bruce for the stats.
Eric Wikman
eric at wikman.com
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