[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Jun 12 14:32:52 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jun 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jun 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 11 Jun 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 11 Jun 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 4 Jun 98 and 28 May 98)

1. Rate grows at 16074 blocks per day. (15300, 14598)
   Keyspace complete in 7.0 years.     (7.2, 7.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 27 Feb 2003.

2. Rate grows at 26244 blocks per day. (25392, 24736)
   Keyspace complete in 5.6 years.     (5.7, 5.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Mar 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 190 days.    (196, 201)
   Keyspace complete in 2.8 years. (2.9, 3.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 3 Oct 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 131 days.    (133, 133)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.1, 2.2)
   50% chance of finding key before 9 Mar 2000.

Bruce Ford
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