[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Mon Jun 22 12:04:26 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 18 Jun 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 18 Jun 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 18 Jun 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 18 Jun 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 11 Jun 98 and 4 Jun 98)

1. Rate grows at 16648 blocks per day. (16074, 15300)
   Keyspace complete in 6.9 years.     (7.0, 7.2)
   50% chance of finding key before 31 Jan 2003.

2. Rate grows at 26410 blocks per day. (26244, 25392)
   Keyspace complete in 5.6 years.     (5.6, 5.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 29 Mar 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 187 days.    (190, 196)
   Keyspace complete in 2.8 years. (2.8, 2.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 21 Sep 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 133 days.    (131, 133)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.1, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 23 Mar 2000.


Sorry for the late posting.  Have been (and still am) sick with flu.

Bruce Ford
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