[RC5] Estimated time of completion of DES-II-2, please.
gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
Mon Jun 22 15:07:20 EDT 1998
Eyeballing the graph at
http://www.distributed.net/statistics/
indicates that total D.Net RC5 cracking power has doubled. This
stat is essentially meaningless for estimating DES keyrates because
the machines that are good at one tend to be bad at the other.
Alphas tear through DES, but are slower at RC5 and the Intel i86
family has the opposite trend.
Using this x2 estimate, we'll take ~20 days.
If we assume that the DES keyrate scales in accordance with the
stats presented at
http://www.distributed.net/statistics/stats.html
then we have 65.5Gk/s(DES) = 244 block/s (DES)
This means it will take 1.10Ms = 12.7 days to exhaust the DES
keyspace. This estimate is more "positive" than the previous
estimate. Also, there's more account of the relative strengths of
the contributing processors based on the second estimate.
However, this is >10 days.
-- Eric Gindrup ! gindrup at Okway.okstate.edu
______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: [RC5] Estimated time of completion of DES-II-2, please.
Author: <rc5 at lists.distributed.net> at SMTP
Date: 6/21/98 2:45 AM
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Could someone calculate an estimation of the duration of the upcoming
DES-II-2 challenge by comparing the data aquired in the first contest
with the growth that we had since. This could help us to see if we'll
get the full 10 000$ prize, because we have now to find the key in 10
days!
Bellow is the excerpt from the RSA web page for the DES-II contest
(http://www.rsa.com/rsalabs/des2/) that describe the prize for the
contest:
"The next challenge will be launched at 9:00am on July 13th. We'll use
40 days as the time required for this break, so the prizes will be
$10,000 for a break within 10 days, $5000 for a break within 20 days
and $1,000 for a break within 30 days. After that - nothing."
Hugo
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