[RC5] Estimated time of completion of DES-II-2, pleas

gindrup at okway.okstate.edu gindrup at okway.okstate.edu
Mon Jun 22 20:14:45 EDT 1998


     Jason Untulis and I both forgot an important optimization in the DES 
     client.  Only half of the keyspace must be exhausted since DES keys 
     come in pairs -- cracking one member of the key is equivalent to 
     cracking the other.
     
     This observation doesn't do anything to his or my ~20 days estimate. 
      My estimate of ~12.7 days however, if the stats on the page we both 
     cite are for single keys and not keypairs, is pessimistic by a 
     factor of 2.  If that page is indicating keypair rates, then he and 
     I would recalculate exhaustion times of 6.35 days.  If that page is 
     indicating keyrates, then our calculations are correct.
     
     This caused some keyrate confusion even *during* DES-II-1.
            -- Eric Gindrup ! gindrup at Okway.okstate.edu


______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: Re: [RC5] Estimated time of completion of DES-II-2, please. 
Author:  <rc5 at lists.distributed.net> at SMTP
Date:    6/22/98 2:07 PM


     
     Eyeballing the graph at
     http://www.distributed.net/statistics/
     indicates that total D.Net RC5 cracking power has doubled.  This 
     stat is essentially meaningless for estimating DES keyrates because 
     the machines that are good at one tend to be bad at the other.  
     Alphas tear through DES, but are slower at RC5 and the Intel i86 
     family has the opposite trend.
     
     Using this x2 estimate, we'll take ~20 days.
     
     If we assume that the DES keyrate scales in accordance with the 
     stats presented at
     http://www.distributed.net/statistics/stats.html 
     then we have 65.5Gk/s(DES) = 244 block/s (DES)
     This means it will take 1.10Ms = 12.7 days to exhaust the DES 
     keyspace.  This estimate is more "positive" than the previous 
     estimate.  Also, there's more account of the relative strengths of 
     the contributing processors based on the second estimate.
     
     However, this is >10 days.
            -- Eric Gindrup ! gindrup at Okway.okstate.edu
     
     
______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________
Subject: [RC5] Estimated time of completion of DES-II-2, please. 
Author:  <rc5 at lists.distributed.net> at SMTP 
Date:    6/21/98 2:45 AM
     
     
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Could someone calculate an estimation of the duration of the upcoming 
DES-II-2 challenge by comparing the data aquired in the first contest 
with the growth that we had since. This could help us to see if we'll 
get the full 10 000$ prize, because we have now to find the key in 10 
days!
     
Bellow is the excerpt from the RSA web page for the DES-II contest 
(http://www.rsa.com/rsalabs/des2/) that describe the prize for the 
contest:
     
"The next challenge will be launched at 9:00am on July 13th. We'll use 
40 days as the time required for this break, so the prizes will be 
$10,000 for a break within 10 days, $5000 for a break within 20 days 
and $1,000 for a break within 30 days. After that - nothing."
     
Hugo
     
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