[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Jun 26 14:16:37 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 25 Jun 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 25 Jun 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 25 Jun 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 25 Jun 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 18 Jun 98 and 11 Jun 98)

1. Rate grows at 17395 blocks per day. (16648, 16074)
   Keyspace complete in 6.7 years.     (6.9, 7.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Dec 2002.

2. Rate grows at 27159 blocks per day. (26410, 26244)
   Keyspace complete in 5.5 years.     (5.6, 5.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 7 Mar 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 184 days.    (187, 190)
   Keyspace complete in 2.7 years. (2.8, 2.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 10 Sep 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 134 days.    (133, 131)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.1, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 20 Mar 2000.


Bruce Ford
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