[RC5] Is RC5-64 taking forever?

Colin L. Hildinger colin at ionet.net
Sat Mar 7 23:29:02 EST 1998


This has been much debated.  Frankly, if we weren't doing RC5-64 right
now we would be doing *nothing*.  Creating the RC5-64 clients was
simple to do from the RC5-56 code and so we did it.  There will be
other projects in the future, many of them, but instead of let all the
computing power disappear we choose to use RC5-64 to keep people going.
 Also note that just a while ago the estimated time to completion was
140 years.

Also note that "on average" we will find the key 50% of the way through
the keyspace, so it's really only about 25 years, not 50.  Also note
that Moore's Law will double our computing power without further
recruiting every 18 months or so, so it's really not even 25 years. 
Also note that we are still recruiting new people and that we will get
a faster disk subsystem in the stats server.

Of course you have to take into consideration projects like DES II-2
which will start in July and take a few weeks away from the RC5-64
effort, but as we get faster and faster, the percentage of time taken
up by DES II projects will be less and less significant.  RC5-64 will
fall.  It won't take 50 years, or even 25 years, not even 10 years.  I
suspect that it will fall much faster than people think right now.  The
number of PC's participating is dwarfed by the number not
participating.  We have to recruit people.  New projects like DES II
serve to up the interest.  I notice that our keyrate made a large jump
during DES II, probably because people got out and recruited.  Don't
stop.

I remember a time when the RC5-56 estimated time to completion was 50
years...

On Sat, 7 Mar 1998 16:16:38 -0800, Rocky Downs wrote:

>My calculations may be incorrect.  I used the number of blocks to search.  I divided buy the number of blocks processed yesterday.  The number I got should have been how many days until the contest will be over at the current pace.  I then divided buy 365.25 which should give the number of years.  To my surprise the answer was 50 years.  I checked it twice.  If this is true I say we have two options.  One, give up on this and start something new.  Two, we could each recruit 50 other people.  I am leaning towards option one.  All of our computers together makes for a very powerful computer.  But it seems that we are being wasted now.  Besides just think what would happen to our stats server with 1.5 million separate individuals.  Responses would be appreciated.


Colin L. Hildinger
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