[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri May 1 13:51:12 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 30 Apr 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 30 Apr 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 30 Apr 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 30 Apr 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 23 Apr 98 and 16 Apr 98)

1. Rate grows at 12271 blocks per day. (11564, 10775)
   Keyspace complete in 8.1 years.     (8.4, 8.7)

2. Rate grows at 24918 blocks per day. (24448, 23342)
   Keyspace complete in 5.9 years.     (5.9, 6.1)

3. Rate doubles every 225 days.    (234, 247)
   Keyspace complete in 3.4 years. (3.5, 3.7)

4. Rate doubles every 124 days.    (124, 128)
   Keyspace complete in 2.1 years. (2.1, 2.2)


But we might find THE key tomorrow.  Odds of about 13000:1.

Perhaps it is time to drop the regressions from 4 Dec 97?


Bruce Ford
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