[RC5] Time to completion

James Mastros root at jennifer-unix.dyn.ml.org
Sat May 2 13:49:31 EDT 1998


On Fri, 1 May 1998, Bruce Ford wrote:
> Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
> rc5stats main page.
> 
> Regression basis:
> 
> 1. Assuming linear growth. 
>    Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
>    2 Mar 98 to 30 Apr 98.
[...]

> These give: (with previous regressions from 23 Apr 98 and 16 Apr 98)
> 
> 1. Rate grows at 12271 blocks per day. (11564, 10775)
>    Keyspace complete in 8.1 years.     (8.4, 8.7)
[...]
Perhaps you should give "halfway" points as well?  After all, that is the
point where we get 1:1 odds of having found the key vs. yet to find it.
(Or would that be half of the _remaining_ keyspace -- my staticiscs
aren't as good as they should be.)

> But we might find THE key tomorrow.  Odds of about 13000:1.
Since these are posted weekly, how about computing the odds of finding the
key before this is next posted?

> Perhaps it is time to drop the regressions from 4 Dec 97?
I should think that the discontinuity in the middle would screw up your
regression -- so they probably aren't very accurate.  OTOH, once you've
set up your script to do them (assuming your using a script to do this),
they aren't any additional work.

	-=- James Mastros
-- 
True mastery is knowing enough to bullshit the rest.
	-=- Me

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