[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri May 8 18:46:20 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 7 May 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 7 May 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 7 May 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 7 May 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 30 Apr 98 and 23 Apr 98)

1. Rate grows at 12841 blocks per day. (12271, 11564)
   Keyspace complete in 7.9 years.     (8.1, 8.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 5 Sep 2003.

2. Rate grows at 24562 blocks per day. (24918, 24448)
   Keyspace complete in 5.9 years.     (5.9, 5.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 19 May 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 218 days.    (225, 234)
   Keyspace complete in 3.3 years. (3.4, 3.5)
   50% chance of finding key before 11 Jan 2001.

4. Rate doubles every 128 days.    (124, 124)
   Keyspace complete in 2.2 years. (2.1, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 6 Mar 2000.

There will be no time to completion reports (from me) for 2 weeks.  I 
am on holidays and will not be near a net connection.

Bruce Ford
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