[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri May 29 14:44:57 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 28 May 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 28 May 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97) and 
   2 Mar 98 to 28 May 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 28 May 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 21 May 98 and 14 May 98)

1. Rate grows at 14598 blocks per day. (13980, 13584)
   Keyspace complete in 7.4 years.     (7.6, 7.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 17 May 2003.

2. Rate grows at 24736 blocks per day. (24395, 25205)
   Keyspace complete in 5.8 years.     (5.9, 5.8)
   50% chance of finding key before 5 May 2002.

3. Rate doubles every 201 days.    (207, 210)
   Keyspace complete in 3.0 years. (3.1, 3.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 12 Nov 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 133 days.    (133, 127)
   Keyspace complete in 2.2 years. (2.2, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 17 Mar 2000.


We might just get 1.5% done before DES-II-2 starts.

Bruce Ford
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