[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Sep 4 14:02:12 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 3 Sep 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 3 Sep 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 3 Sep 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 3 Sep 98.

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 31 Jul 98 to 3 Sep 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 31 Jul 98 to 3 Sep 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 27 Aug 98 and 20 Aug 98)

1. Rate grows at 27461 blocks per day. (26468, 25397)
   Keyspace complete in 5.2 years.     (5.3, 5.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 14 Feb 2002.

2. Rate grows at 38585 blocks per day. (37769, 36740)
   Keyspace complete in 4.4 years.     (4.5, 4.6)
   50% chance of finding key before 20 Aug 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 148 days.    (150, 153)
   Keyspace complete in 2.0 years. (2.1, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 29 Apr 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 119 days.    (119, 119)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 22 Jan 2000.

5. Rate grows at 56002 blocks per day. (48579, 42392)
   Keyspace complete in 3.7 years.  (4.0, 4.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 11 Mar 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 122 days.    (139, 153)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years.  (1.9, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 2 Feb 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 27 Aug 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   14.9,   27.9,    40.8   ( 14.6,   27.1,    39.6)
2.   18.6,   36.7,    54.9   ( 18.3,   36.1,    53.9)
3.   63.5      -        -    ( 61.4      -        - )
4.  113.8      -        -    (113.2      -        - )

5.   24.2,   50.6,    77.0   ( 21.8,   44.7,    67.6)
6.  104.4      -        -    ( 74.8      -        - )


Data from 12 and 13 July 1998 has now been included in the regressions.

Bruce Ford

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