[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Sep 11 14:42:52 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the 
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 10 Sep 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 10 Sep 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 10 Sep 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 10 Sep 98.

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 7 Aug 98 to 10 Sep 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 7 Aug 98 to 10 Sep 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 3 Sep 98 and 27 Aug 98)

1. Rate grows at 28273 blocks per day. (27461, 26468)
   Keyspace complete in 5.1 years.     (5.2, 5.3)
   50% chance of finding key before 28 Jan 2002.

2. Rate grows at 39147 blocks per day. (38585, 37769)
   Keyspace complete in 4.4 years.     (4.4, 4.5)
   50% chance of finding key before 13 Aug 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 147 days.    (148, 150)
   Keyspace complete in 2.0 years. (2.0, 2.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 24 Apr 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 119 days.    (119, 119)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 25 Jan 2000.

5. Rate grows at 56025 blocks per day. (56002, 48579)
   Keyspace complete in 3.7 years.  (3.7, 4.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 12 Mar 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 125 days.    (122, 139)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years.  (1.7, 1.9)
   50% chance of finding key before 10 Feb 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 3 Sep 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   15.2,   28.5,    41.9   ( 14.9,   27.9,    40.8)
2.   18.7,   37.2,    55.6   ( 18.6,   36.7,    54.9)
3.   64.9      -        -    ( 63.5      -        - )
4.  112.7      -        -    (113.8      -        - )

5.   24.2,   50.6,    77.0   ( 24.2,   50.6,    77.0)
6.   99.1      -        -    (104.4      -        - )


Bruce Ford

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