[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Sep 18 15:06:15 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 17 Sep 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 17 Sep 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 17 Sep 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98 and 18 Jul 98 to 17 Sep 98.

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 14 Aug 98 to 17 Sep 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 14 Aug 98 to 17 Sep 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 10 Sep 98 and 3 Sep 98)

1. Rate grows at 28970 blocks per day. (28273, 27461)
   Keyspace complete in 5.0 years.     (5.1, 5.2)
   50% chance of finding key before 13 Jan 2002.

2. Rate grows at 39521 blocks per day. (39147, 38585)
   Keyspace complete in 4.3 years.     (4.4, 4.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 8 Aug 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 146 days.    (147, 148)
   Keyspace complete in 2.0 years. (2.0, 2.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 21 Apr 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 120 days.    (119, 119)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 31 Jan 2000.

5. Rate grows at 42553 blocks per day. (56025, 56002)
   Keyspace complete in 4.2 years.  (3.7, 3.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 1 Jul 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 170 days.    (125, 122)
   Keyspace complete in 2.2 years.  (1.7, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 10 Jun 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 10 Sep 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   16.2,   30.0,    43.7   ( 15.2,   28.5,    41.9)
2.   19.5,   38.2,    57.0   ( 18.7,   37.2,    55.6)
3.   69.1      -        -    ( 64.9      -        - )
4.  112.4      -        -    (112.7      -        - )

5.   20.4,   40.6,    60.8   ( 24.2,   50.6,    77.0)
6.   50.0      -        -    ( 99.1      -        - )


Bruce Ford

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