[RC5] Time to completion

Bruce Ford b.ford at qut.edu.au
Fri Sep 25 17:23:41 EDT 1998


Data used is RC5 2^28 blocks completed each GMT day as reported on the
rc5stats main page.

Regression basis:

1. Assuming linear growth. 
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98, 18 Jul 98 to 22 Sep 98, 23 Sep 98
   and 24 Sep 98.

2. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98, 18 Jul 98 to 22 Sep 98,
   23 Sep 98 and 24 Sep 98.

3. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 4 Dec 97 to 12 Jan 97 (excluding 10 Dec 97), 
   2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98, 18 Jul 98 to 22 Sep 98, 23 Sep 98
   and 24 Sep 98.

4. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 2 Mar 98 to 13 Jul 98, 18 Jul 98 to 22 Sep 98,
   23 Sep 98 and 24 Sep 98.

5. Assuming linear growth.
   Data from 21 Aug 98 to 21 Sep 98, 23 Sep 98 and 24 Sep 98.

6. Assuming exponential growth.
   Data from 21 Aug 98 to 21 Sep 98, 23 Sep 98 and 24 Sep 98.

These give: (with previous regressions from 17 Sep 98 and 10 Sep 98)

1. Rate grows at 29499 blocks per day. (28970, 28273)
   Keyspace complete in 5.0 years.     (5.0, 5.1)
   50% chance of finding key before 3 Jan 2002.

2. Rate grows at 39741 blocks per day. (39521, 39147)
   Keyspace complete in 4.3 years.     (4.3, 4.4)
   50% chance of finding key before 6 Aug 2001.

3. Rate doubles every 145 days.    (146, 147)
   Keyspace complete in 2.0 years. (2.0, 2.0)
   50% chance of finding key before 20 Apr 2000.

4. Rate doubles every 121 days.    (120, 119)
   Keyspace complete in 1.7 years. (1.7, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 7 Feb 2000.

5. Rate grows at 35777 blocks per day. (42553, 56025)
   Keyspace complete in 4.5 years.     (4.2, 3.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 13 Sep 2001.

6. Rate doubles every 210 days.     (170, 125)
   Keyspace complete in 2.5 years.  (2.2, 1.7)
   50% chance of finding key before 9 Sep 2000.


TeraFLOPs.

Extrapolations for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Jan 2002 and 1 Jan 2004 respectively:
(with extrapolations from 17 Sep 1998)

cf. Hardware goals of 10, 32 and 100 TFLOPs

1.   16.4,   30.4,    44.4   ( 16.2,   30.0,    43.7)
2.   19.5,   38.4,    57.3   ( 19.5,   38.2,    57.0)
3.   69.6      -        -    ( 69.1      -        - )
4.  110.0      -        -    (112.4      -        - )

5.   18.3,   35.3,    52.3   ( 20.4,   40.6,    60.8)
6.   34.9      -        -    ( 50.0      -        - )


Bruce Ford

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