[RC5] Thoughts on Stats & "Block Hoarders"

Isaac zarkon at concentric.net
Wed Apr 21 09:12:41 EDT 1999


At 05:24 PM 4/19/1999 -0500, you wrote:
>of these "block hoarders" could be sitting on THE finished key, but may not

The problem here is all statistical.  I don't have the figures, but I 
believe less of the key space has been handed out than not handed 
out.  This means that the odds are that the winning key is still sitting in 
the bulk of key space that has not been handed out, rather than the little 
bit that has been handed out but not checked.  And since we will go back 
and recheck those keys if the winning key is not found, it's not worth 
worrying about.  The odds, and time are on our side.  If 1/5 (arbitrary 
number) of all the keys are "on hold", like you fear, then 4/5 of them are 
not.  And since every key has an equal chance of being the winning key, 
that would mean there is about an 80% chance that the winning key hasn't 
been sent out yet.

This could make a cool addition to the stats page.  Based on outstanding 
blocks, what are the odds that someone has the winning block?

Isaac

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