[RC5] How long would it take?
gryn at marko.net
gryn at marko.net
Sat Dec 18 21:33:53 EST 1999
The best way to calculate the arrival time, or I should say easiest,
is to pretend it's physics and use a little geometry,
Basically assume the rate is linear. I know it's a little curved in
general, has daily flucuations and such, but this is a good approximation.
Now, if the rate is linear, we use our littl triangle diagram here:
e
/|
d/ |
/| |
/ | |
------
a b c
(a-b,b-c are equidistant, a-d-e forms a straight line)
Sorry for the crudeness. but the only thing we need to see here, is that
the rate rises linearly from a to b to c. So since we know your position
is related to your rate... that is the area of the triangle a-b-d is
directly related to the postion (percent complete) gained between
a-b. And that the area of b-d-e-c is similarly related to b-c.
SO: we go if we go X% from a-b, how far do we go from b-c?
Well that is simply the question, how much bigger is b-d-e-c, compared to
a-d-b? The answer is 3 times bigger. (b-d-e-c consists of 3 triangles of
equal dimensions and consequently size as a-d-b) So from b-c we go 3
times X%.
SOOOO: :)
16.754% is our current X%. It took us 786 days to get there.
Which means, we will go 3*16.754 or about 50%, in another 786 days. (since
a-b and b-c being equadistant, it means they are equal time intervals).
That means, we have past the optimistic person's half way mark. in 786
days we will be 2/3's of the way there (16.75+50). 2/3's the way there is
probably a realist's idea of completion.
Now, one problem with this method, is that this far in the game, it's a
little crude, in terms of what points you can figure out (next point is
past 100%). But using the rules I gave you, one can figure out more
points... or you could just friggin guess :) .
but here are some quickly calculated points.. the pattern is,
multiply/divide by 4 for the percent, and by 2 for the time. or you can
use any square.. such as 9 and 3.
percent time
1 100 d y
2 250
4 400 1
7 525
12 750 2
16 800
28 1150 3
48 1500 4
66 1600
112 2300 6
Those give you good ideas for total time. And trust me, these numbers are
as accurate as need be :) , especially since we don't know -when- we will
find the correct key. We only know, or only -hope-, it will be within the
next 4 years. :)
p.s. since it does have a slight curve (the rate).. you can probably shave
that 6 years down to just shy of 5, as a worst case scenario for us.
Cheers, Gryn
---------------------------------------------------------
Question: God when will people due retards learn to read.
Answer: When will due retards people god learn to write?
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