[RC5] How long would it take?

gryn at marko.net gryn at marko.net
Sat Dec 18 21:33:53 EST 1999

The best way to calculate the arrival time, or I should say easiest,
is to pretend it's physics and use a little geometry,

Basically assume the rate is linear.  I know it's a little curved in
general, has daily flucuations and such, but this is a good approximation.

Now, if the rate is linear, we use our littl triangle diagram here:

  d/ |
 /|  |
/ |  |
a  b  c

(a-b,b-c are equidistant, a-d-e forms a straight line)

Sorry for the crudeness.  but the only thing we need to see here, is that
the rate rises linearly from a to b to c.  So since we know your position
is related to your rate... that is the area of the triangle a-b-d is
directly related to the postion (percent complete) gained between
a-b.  And that the area of b-d-e-c is similarly related to b-c.

SO: we go if we go X% from a-b, how far do we go from b-c?

Well that is simply the question, how much bigger is b-d-e-c, compared to
a-d-b?  The answer is 3 times bigger.  (b-d-e-c consists of 3 triangles of
equal dimensions and consequently size as a-d-b)  So from b-c we go 3
times X%.

SOOOO:   :)

16.754% is our current X%.  It took us 786 days to get there.

Which means, we will go 3*16.754 or about 50%, in another 786 days. (since
a-b and b-c being equadistant, it means they are equal time intervals).

That means, we have past the optimistic person's half way mark.  in 786
days we will be 2/3's of the way there (16.75+50).  2/3's the way there is
probably a realist's idea of completion.

Now, one problem with this method, is that this far in the game, it's a
little crude, in terms of what points you can figure out (next point is
past 100%).  But using the rules I gave you, one can figure out more
points... or you could just friggin guess :) .

but here are some quickly calculated points.. the pattern is,
multiply/divide by 4 for the percent, and by 2 for the time.  or you can
use any square.. such as 9 and 3.

percent	time
  1     100 d	y	
  2     250
  4     400	1
  7     525
 12     750	2
 16     800
 28    1150     3
 48    1500     4
 66    1600     
112    2300     6

Those give you good ideas for total time.  And trust me, these numbers are
as accurate as need be :) , especially since we don't know -when- we will
find the correct key. We only know, or only -hope-, it will be within the
next 4 years. :)

p.s. since it does have a slight curve (the rate).. you can probably shave
that 6 years down to just shy of 5, as a worst case scenario for us.

Cheers, Gryn

Question: God when will people due retards learn to read.
Answer: When will due retards people god learn to write?

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