Adam C Luter
gryn at gryn.dyn.marko.net
Tue Jun 8 15:57:23 EDT 1999
Though maybe a smaller affect, the fact that you can see the change from
positive to zero slope could also be a factor in the dramaticity of
change. That is to say, because people see it going down, they flee to
SETI thinking that RC5 is doomed (well maybe not that extreme). This
isn't far fetched, it happens with the stock market every second.
Also, (and this is more of a stretch due to the noisy data), there seem to
be a second cycle ontop of the 7 day one. I would say between 1-2 months.
It seems that all 3 of these factors hit at the same time, and with
everyone watching it multiplied the effect of them all a little.
By the way, it would be -really- nice to have at least the average rate
for the "acceleration" graph (Mkeys per second per day). Though I don't
see why it would be hard to put the same curve fits from the first graph
on both the other two graphs. They would be very useful.
On Mon, 7 Jun 1999, Jim C. Nasby wrote:
> We believe that there's two causes for our growth stopping. First, it's the
> end of the school year, which means that many students will not have net
> access until they return to school. Though a bit hard to see now, this effect
> also took place last year, you can look at the keyrate graphs
> (http://www.distributed.net/statistics/rc5-64.html) to see it. Second, a
> number of our users have stated that they would be switching to SETI at HOME once
> it was out.
> One thing to note is that we are still gaining ~300 new participants per day.
> This means that as soon as we see the last of people leaving for SETI, our
> keyrate should resume it's climb. As for students away from the net for the
> summer, they'll be back around September. :)
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