[RC5] [ADMIN] CSC Statistics

Rob Butler rkbutler at earthlink.net
Mon Jan 3 17:24:28 EST 2000


Not really that odd at all, statistically.  The odds of the key being in
the first 50% are exactly the same as the odds of it being in the last
50%.  We saw the same scenario on DES II-1 a couple of years ago.  We
had completed so much of the keyspace that there was widespread
speculation on the list and IRC about whether we had possibly screwed up
and missed the key.  I think we actually completed over 90% of the
keyspace before the right one was found.  As I recall, we had a
tremendous, collective sigh of relief.

In short, don't get too hung up on the %.  Our key can easily be the
absolute last one.

Rob Butler

"Basil A. Daoust" wrote:
> 
>It seems odd that we have had to complete so much of the keyspace and yet 
>we still have not found the key... depending on how much work reported is >duplicate I would think the odds of being at 80% and not hit the key to >be fairly low.

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