[RC5] [ADMIN] CSC Statistics

Essam Metwally emetwall at ucalgary.ca
Wed Jan 5 10:18:08 EST 2000



Well, not a statistician either, but the odds are irrelevant.  The key
is just as likely to be found at position 1 as it is to be found at
position 100.  There is no statistical difference in the probability of
being found at either location.  You're right, the odds are in favor of
it being in the first 99 positions but that doesn't perclude the
possibility and potential reality that it is in the last position.

Relax, sit back, and let the computers crucnh the numbers.

Essam

Forbes_Thayne at emc.com wrote:
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Basil A. Daoust [SMTP:basildaoust at home.com]
> > Sent: Monday, January 03, 2000 12:19 PM
> > To:   rc5 at lists.distributed.net
> > Subject:      Re: [RC5] [ADMIN] CSC Statistics
> >
> > It seems odd that we have had to complete so much of the keyspace and yet
> > we
> > still have not found the key... depending on how much work reported is
> > duplicate
> > I would think the odds of being at 80% and not hit the key to be fairly
> > low.
> >
> > Basil
> >
> I'm no statistician, but I suspect that the odds of getting to 80% and not
> hitting the key are about 1 in 5.
> 
> DES-II-1 was solved after checking 90% of the keyspace.
> 
> DES-III was solved after checking about 30% of the keyspace.
> 
> You win some.  You win some more.
> 
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