[RC5] Stats suggestion - back calculation to day 1

Dan Oetting dan_oetting at uswest.net
Mon Jan 8 12:45:55 EST 2001


on 1/5/01 5:13 PM, bwilson at fers.com wrote:

>Just to settle this once and for all, it's highly likely that I would go
>back to the dawn of time and calculate the decaying averages correctly
>from the beginning.  This is the kind of thing where I write a script that
>will calculate from day X to day X+1 and run it a certain number of times
>in a row each day (depending on how long it takes and what else is going
>on).  When it catches up to today, then we'll show the fields on the stats
>and keep them up to date from then on.
>
>In the event I do not, the most likely result is to use their overall rate
>as the starting point.  The intent would be to get it as close as is
>practical to the real thing from day 1.

You don't have to start the calculations from the beginning. You can 
arrive at the same result by starting with todays stats and working 
backwards to day 1. The main advantage is you are adding the higher 
weighted recent values first so the early results are closer to the final 
results and can be displayed or used for rankings after only 3 or 4 half 
lives have been processed. After 10 half lives the accuracy will be 
better than 99.9%. 
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