[RC5] What others are saying FWD: Re: DC Setiathome group?

blitz blitz at macronet.net
Sun Jul 29 16:31:24 EDT 2001

Just passing this for the flame value....its not my view..

>Date: Sun, 29 Jul 2001 04:35:26 -0500 (CDT)
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>Subject: [ISN] Re: DC Setiathome group?
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>OK, its a fun read and a great flame.
>- WK
>---------- Forwarded message ----------
>Date: Sat, 28 Jul 2001 03:37:51 -0400
>From: Izaac <izaac at setec.org>
>To: Jeremiah Gowdy <jgowdy at home.com>
>Cc: dc-stuff at dis.org
>Subject: Re: DC Setiathome group?
>On Fri, Jul 27, 2001 at 08:30:46AM -0700, Jeremiah Gowdy wrote:
> > As I said in another flame, there is a $2,000 prize which I theoretically
> > have a 1 in 17,000 chance of winning.  Not bad odds.
>Alright, f**kwit. I just got home after an hour stuck on the subway.
>I'm tired.  I'm cranky.  And I've got zero tolerance for stupidity.
>Here we go.
>I'm going to presume that you're participating in the
>'distributed.net' RC5 cypher challenge[1].  You're brute forcing a
>2^64 key space.  A somewhat daunting task.  But Linux Losers of the
>World, UNITE!  We'll waste plenty of cycles attempting to accomplish
>the irrelevant.
>    Key space          = Ks = 2^64 ~= 18.447*10^18 k
>According to their statistics page[2], which is little more than a
>couple graphs from which numbers are a real pain to pull (and their
>other abstractions arent any better), their processing power is
>growing at a rate of 151.2*10^6 keys/sec/day.  This would be the blue
>line in the top graph.  Though I would otherwise compute a better
>growth curve, I'll just take this somewhat off constant so as to leave
>little for your two brain cells to argue.
>    Key "acceleration" = Ka = 1750 k/s/s
>    Key check rate     = Kr = 1750*t k/s
>    Keys checked       = Kc = (1750*(t^2))/2 k
>Let us assume that this project was begun 01JAN1998, again based on
>that top graph and for simplicity's sake.  Let us also assume that
>today is 31JUL2001.
>    day  = 60*60*24                                = 86400
>    year = day*365.25                              = 31557600.0
>    ttd  = ((3*year)+((31+28+31+30+31+30+31)*day)) = 112989600.0 s
>So how much of the keyspace have we searched so far?
>    Kc(ttd)    = (1750*(ttd^2))/2 = 11.171*10^18 k
>    Kc(ttd)/Ks = .605571          ~= 60.6%
>We're already past the midpoint.  So barring any stupidities in the
>software engineering (which shouldn't be too readily dismissed) and
>continuing at present rates of growth, the key will be found by:
>    Kc = 2^64  = (1750*(t^2))/2
>     t = sqrt((2*(2^64))/1750)    ~= 145.2*10^6s -> 07AUG2002
>It's becoming more and more likely to find the thing, i.e. your odds
>are now at about 1:7.276*10^18 and approaching 1:1 as the pool of keys
>remaining to be searched shrinks.
>You seem to think your odds are 1:17000.  I shouldn't have to tell you
>that you're a dolt.  Do your odds in the state lottery change
>depending on the number of fellow participants?  The only thing in
>variance here is the number of "tickets" that you "buy."
>Rather than get hung up on that, though, let's move on and put
>together your PC with average wattages[3][4]:
>    Motherboard      - 25 W        Floppy           -  5   W
>    CPU              - 30 W        CDR/W            - 17.5 W
>    RAM              - 10 W        DVD              - 17.5 W
>    Video            - 25 W        IDE HD           - 10   W
>    Sound            - 10 W        IDE HD           - 10   W
>    NIC              -  5 W        Misc             -  5   W
>    Serial/Parl/Misc - 10 W        Total ===========> 180W
>Since it's likely that your floppy and CDs won't be spinning much,
>I'll put it to 160W.  This is probably low.  We'll also assume that
>you manage to turn off your monitor for the time you're not using the
>system.  Demonstrating the intellectual prowess that you have, this is
>probably also a poor assumption, but we'll go with it.
>According to the DOE[5], the national average electric rate in 1998
>was US$0.087 / KWH.  Let us presume that you've been caught, and will
>continue to be caught in this 'distributed.net, from 01JAN1998 through
>to 07AUG2002.  We'll also say that the rate is constant. Let's see how
>much you'd have spent and will spend on power:
>    t = ((4*year)+((31+28+31+30+31+30+31+7)*day))/3600 = 40320h
>    P = (W*h)*($/W*h) = (160*40320)*(.087/1000) =======> $561.25
>Hrm.  Not an insignificant amount of money.  About US$10.00 per month
>over the course of the whole key search.  For no guarantee of a
>return, monetary or otherwise.
>If you want to look at the money angle alone, think of what you could
>have earned in the market in 1998/1999.. or even a money market or
>savings account.. or even buying a couple US$50.00 EE bonds every 5
>As far as the non-tangibles, what have you accomplished?  You've
>voluntarily searched futilely for a needle you knew damn well was in
>the haystack all along, under the false pretense that you'd be
>celebrated for this "accomplishment."
>Now apologise to all the people whose time you've wasted, then go sit
>in the corner.
>[1] http://www.distributed.net/rc5/index.html
>[2] http://n0cgi.distributed.net/statistics/rc5-64/index.html
>[3] http://pcpowercooling.com/maxpc/index_cases.htm
>[4] Averages of averages and personal experience used where appropriate.
>[5] http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epav1/epav1ta15.html
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