[RC5] keyrate stabilizing?

Bruce Wilson bwilson at distributed.net
Mon Oct 15 18:00:02 EDT 2001


While the number of nodes per stub is not constant, it does give us some
sense of progress.  If we have 75% of the stubs back, then we can guess
that we are about 75% done with the project.  Even if that last 25% of
stubs end up containing twice as many nodes (on average) than the first
75%, we at least have a gauge.

In simpler terms, the unfinished stubs represent how *many* work units
we have to do, but can't be relied on to predict how *long* it will take
us to do them.

Duplicate elimination is actually a very big problem.  As I mentioned
before, some people have decided to abuse the distributed.net network by
submitting the same work over and over.  Considering how long we've been
working on OGR-24, is it any surprise that we've received more work back
than it should take for the entire project, two passes and all?  I don't
know this for sure, but I do know all the work for OGR-24 was handed out
more than twice.

We've tried using raw "unfiltered" statistics before (see CSC), and the
response was not pretty.  Talk about conspiracy theories!  I have a hard
time believing a stats page showing "OGR-24 is 274% complete" (or
whatever it is) would be an improvement over what we have now.

__
Bruce Wilson <bwilson at distributed.net>
PGP KeyID: 5430B995, http://www.toomuchblue.com/ 

"Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur."
(Whatever is said in Latin sounds profound.) 



| -----Original Message-----
| total stubs returned / total stubs * 100 = rough % done.
| 
| It seems it would be much easier to give a rough percentage complete
| figure.  Checking for duplicates and checking the 2nd pass to 
| ensure acuracy
| of the returned data does indeed need to be done at some 
| stage,  but for a
| simple 'we are about 74% done' figure, couldn't we just count 
| the number of
| returned stubs?  Surely duplicate results are neglible in 
| comparision to
| valid results and thus would not distort the rough figure too much.
| 
| The other inaccuracy in this figure is that each stub 
| contains a different
| number of nodes.  So a stub is not an accurate measure of 
| work done.  But
| doesn't this average out in the long term, or does the 
| average number of
| nodes per stub deviate as we move though the workspace?
| 
| 
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