[RC5] Prediction updated for month of August.

Daniel Quintiliani coredump0 at mercurylink.net
Sun Aug 1 13:34:36 EDT 2004


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After plotting the August 1 data (140 GKeys/sec), I recreated the trendline.
It gave this formula:

y = 47.585Ln(x) + 14.932
R^2 = 0.8898

That makes 403 years 4 months from Dec 2002.

Notice how people are starting to leave RC5? Other people will join soon, with
greater processing power. This basically evens it out with slightly more each time. That's
why I chose a logarithmic formula for the trendline. You can look at the graph and see that
this is happening and that the graph is almost logarithmic.

Think I should submit an enhancement request for the stats to automatically predict
based on the graphs? The stats system would be able to get a much better estimate
than I would because the graph keeps track of every day's keyrate and I'm only looking
at the first day of the month.

- -Dan
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