[RC5] Prediction updated for month of August.
coredump0 at mercurylink.net
Mon Aug 2 05:45:39 EDT 2004
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> On Sun, 1 Aug 2004, Daniel Quintiliani wrote:
> > The stats system would be able to get a much better estimate than I
> > would because the graph keeps track of every day's keyrate and I'm only
> > looking at the first day of the month.
> Maybe you've already considered this, but I thought the stats varied
> considerably based on the day of the week. The first of the month this
> month is on a weekend which are historicly low keyratewise while July 1
> was in the middle of the week which are histoiricly higher.
Good idea. First I fixed a few bugs with the spreadsheet (bad estimates of the
graph, an extra month for some reason).
Next, I split it into half-months rather than months and looked at the middle of the
month as well as the month to give a better estimate.
y = 42.817Ln(x) - 1.772
R^2 = 0.8589
That gives 461 years 1 month from Dec 2002 for a better estimate. A 58 year difference...
So, I guess we can say that RC5-72 will probably be finished in about 400-500 years.
I will test the spreadsheet for a while longer and then maybe submit an enhancement
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