[RC5] Prediction updated for month of August.

Daniel Quintiliani coredump0 at mercurylink.net
Mon Aug 2 05:45:39 EDT 2004


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> On Sun, 1 Aug 2004, Daniel Quintiliani wrote:
> > The stats system would be able to get a much better estimate than I 
> > would because the graph keeps track of every day's keyrate and I'm only 
> > looking at the first day of the month.
> 
> Maybe you've already considered this, but I thought the stats varied 
> considerably based on the day of the week.  The first of the month this 
> month is on a weekend which are historicly low keyratewise while July 1 
> was in the middle of the week which are histoiricly higher.
> 

Good idea. First I fixed a few bugs with the spreadsheet (bad estimates of the
graph, an extra month for some reason).

Next, I split it into half-months rather than months and looked at the middle of the 
month as well as the month to give a better estimate.

y = 42.817Ln(x) - 1.772
R^2 = 0.8589

That gives 461 years 1 month from Dec 2002 for a better estimate. A 58 year difference...

So, I guess we can say that RC5-72 will probably be finished in about 400-500 years.

I will test the spreadsheet for a while longer and then maybe submit an enhancement
request.

- -Dan
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